Big System Model
RED was selected to assist in a number of areas in the development of a Whole System model. Work was conducted in 2 Phases and resulted in a full working model at appropriate level of abstraction.
The Home Office uses a variety of predictive models to support policy makers and senior managers across the key areas of crime/public protection, Offender Management and the Criminal Justice System.
Offender Management and the operation of the Criminal Justice System tend to be complex and closely inter-related areas. This is an important issue for the Home Office because, if policy analysis cannot recognise these cross-office linkages, there are significant risks of initiatives being poorly coordinated, of reduced effectiveness or even counter-productivity in some respects.
The current models have been developed separately for different stand-alone purposes. The Economics and Resource Analysis Unit (ERA) was tasked with producing a suitable large-scale/Whole System model covering the Home Office business and its drivers, in order to provide an overarching policy tool.
RED supported the development of a Whole System representation of the Crime/Offender Management/Criminal Justice area by working with ERA and the Strategic Policy Team (SPT).
Work was divided into two stages:
Stage 1: Proof-of-Concept
- Define the model boundaries;
- Determine the best modelling approach;
- Develop a Proof-of-Concept model, with quantified relationships where possible;
- Review the model to agree with ERA limitations of the approach taken and further work needed to create a viable operational version.
Stage 2: A Fully Functional Operational Model
- Gain senior manager feedback on the Proof-of-Concept model;
- Support ERA staff to rebuild or refresh the model in light of these views and input;
- Advise on next steps.
Key aspects of the support were project plan development and leadership, facilitation and stakeholder management, model design and development, peer review and knowledge transfer throughout the project.
Systems Dynamics methodologies were utilised and modelling was implemented in Vensim.
